The Reason: Should be a very low scoring game as both teams will take it slow in order to get good looks at the basket. UConn is also missing Dyson who was a scoring threat.

This game means a lot to both teams, so look for the pace to be slow to limit mistakes and turnovers.

The Reason: Detroit (37-12-7) is facing off against the worst team in the Western Conference, the Colorado Avalance (25-30-1). With a win, Detroit will be tied for first in the same conference. However, Detroit is 0-2 against Colorado so far this season, but look for that trend to end today.

The Red Wings have outscored the Avalanche by more than 60 goals this season while also giving up 11 fewer goals. Detroit also has 25 more power play goals this season. Detroit is 11-1 in their last 12 games at home while Colorado is 0-5 in their last five games on the road.

Look for Deroit to walk away with a win in this one. They should easily win by two, which makes this line much better than the -350 moneyline that’s currently available.

The Reason: Despite losing 2 of their last 3 games, the Capitals come into this game optimistic.  Prior to losing 2 of 3, they had won 3 straight.  Washington last played Wednesday, giving them 2 days off (from games) coming into tonight’s matchup against the lowly Lightning.

On the other hand, there is Tampa Bay.  Coming in “Hot”, winning 2 of 3, but prior to those 3, they had lost 4 straight against formidable foes.  Both of the Lightning’s wins came as a favorite in the past 3 games, and all 4 losses came as underdogs.

The main thing in this matchup that lead us to pick the Capitals, is the streak of the Capitals vs. the Lightning.  The Capitals have won 7 straight vs. Tampa Bay, and 3 straight in St. Pete.

Some weird, some may say useless, Trends

(via covers)

WAS are 20-8 in their last 28 vs. Southeast.

WAS are 38-16 in their last 54 games as a favorite.

WAS are 19-8 in their last 27 overall.

Capitals are 12-2 in their last 14 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.

Capitals are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.

TB are 7-25 in their last 32 vs. Southeast.

TB are 8-22 in their last 30 Sat. games.

Lightning are 3-14 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

The Reason: Nova comes into this Friday Night showdown against a tough West Virginia team off of 6 straight wins, beating #3 ranked Pitt, #20 ranked Syracuse and #10 ranked Marquette in their path. Since their last loss (January 21 @ Connecticut), Nova has scored an average of 84 points per game, including 102 in each of their past 2 games versus Syracuse and Marquette. Villanova is 20-4 on the year, 8-3 in conference, placing them fifth in the Big East.

On the other hand, there is West Virginia. The Mountaineers have lost 4 of their last 6, including 3 of 4. Against ranked opponents on the season, WVU is 2-7, including losing 4 straight. Losing their main true point guard Joe Mazzulla to season ending surgery, the Mountaineers must now rely on Freshman Darryl Bryant to patrol traffic.Bryant has played in all games this season, starting 17 of 24, but has struggled in conference play. “In losses to Louisville and Syracuse, those teams exposed a number of flaws in Bryant’s game. He hit only 3-of-17 shots with no assists and six turnovers.” –Yahoo! Sports. “I lost a lot of confidence by playing two bad games in a row,” – Darryl Bryant.

The last meeting between these 2 teams occurred last February, resulting in a 78-56 Nova victory.

ATS Records
Villanova:
5-2 on road
8-3 vs. conference
8-2 after a conference game
6-1 off a win against a conference rival
7-0 when playing a team with a winning record after 15 games
8-0 Last 8 Games Overall
8-0 Last 8 Games vs. conference
West Virginia:
0-4 after scoring 60 points or less
2-9 vs. good offensive teams (avg 77+ ppg)

The Reason:Louisville (18-4) will be looking to get a win against the (12-10) Notre Dame squad. With both teams in the Big East, this is sure to be a good game. When the two teams played earlier in the season, Louisville walked out with a lopsided 87-73 victory.

Louisville is also 5-0 on the road so far this season, while they’re giving up just over 60 ppg. That is a number that stands out as a determining factor in this match up. Notre Dame’s offense does not have enough fire power to keep up with the Cardinals and their elite defense.

With the line at -170, this game is a steal in my mind. No reason to wait any longer, jump on now!

Result: Loss

The Reason: Chicago is coming into tonight’s game with 10 more wins and more than 15 less losses than Atlanta. Chicago is also 15-10-3 on the road this season and I don’t expect that success to stop tonight. This game should be fairly low scoring as the Blackhawks have only given up 133 goals this season, which is fourth best in the league.

Chicago is 3-2 against Atlanta covering the past few years. They are the clear favorite tonight, no need to second guess yourself with this one.

Result: Win

The Reason: The Red Wings are coming into tonight’s game with 10 more wins than their opponents and are leading in all  but two statistical categories. Both teams are 4-1 in their last 5 games but Detroit seems to have the advantage, going 13-6 in their last 19 games when playing Nashville.

Detroit is averaging more than 1.25 more goals scored each game than Nashville which is clearly a stat worth keeping an eye on. They are also getting more than 6 more shots off on goal. If the Red Wings can continue to get quality shots, they should have no problem walking away with the win.

Result: Win

The Reason: The Houston Rockets (31-20) seem to have a huge advantage in every way imaginable in tonight’s game against the Milwaukee Bucks (24-29). While the Bucks have been better against the spread this season than their opponents, I don’t see that trend continuing with the absence of Redd, Ridnour, and Bogut.

Both teams are averaging just over 98 ppg with both giving up less than 100 ppg. Houston is 9-1 in its last 10 games against Milwaukee with their only loss coming in 2004.

In Milwaukee’s last 8 games, they are 2-6 against the spread. Houston is 4-1 against the spread when playing Milwaukee.

If you don’t like basing a play of past stats, base this one off the fact that Milwaukee is missing three of its five starters.

Result: Loss

The Reason: The Flyers will be starting their backup goalkeeper today, but I don’t think it will have a great effect on their overall play. He came off the bench in last night’s game to help them escape with a win. Backup, Antero Niittymaki, also has a 12-0-0 record which he’ll be putting to the test against the last place Thrashers.

Also, the Flyers beat the Thrashers in every statistical category available. In their last five games at home against Philadelphia, the Thrashers are 0-5 while also being 4-14 overall in their last 18 home games.

Result: Win